Bear / base / bull: modeling your dilution as a range

"How much will I get diluted?" has no single answer before the round closes — because the biggest input, the pre-money valuation, is still being negotiated. The honest move is to model the same SAFE stack across a range of pre-money outcomes and read the spread. Here's what that looks like, and the one insight it almost always surfaces.

Why a range, not a number

Your converted SAFE block is fixed the moment you sign each SAFE (capped post-money SAFEs lock their percentage). What is not fixed is the new investor's slice — that depends on the pre-money and the new money you agree. So your final ownership moves with the round: a higher pre-money means the new investor's dollars buy a smaller share, and you keep more. Modeling one "base case" hides how much is riding on that negotiation.

Worked example — one stack, three rounds

Founders hold 10,000,000 shares with a single $1,000,000 SAFE at a $10,000,000 cap. Same $4,000,000 of new money in every case; only the pre-money changes.

The insight this almost always surfaces

Founders walk in braced to negotiate their SAFE terms — but by the priced round, capped SAFEs are already locked; there's little left to move there. The lever that actually swings 10 points of ownership is the pre-money valuation of the new round. Seeing bear / base / bull side by side reframes the negotiation: it's the pre-money, not the SAFE mechanics, that decides where you land. Your prior SAFEs set the floor; the pre-money sets the rest.

How to pick your three scenarios

• Base — the pre-money you genuinely expect, grounded in comparable rounds at your stage and traction.
• Bear — a soft market or a slower-than-hoped raise: a lower pre-money and often a bit more new money to hit the same runway. This is where uncapped SAFEs and discounts bite hardest.
• Bull — a competitive round: a higher pre-money and possibly less dilution needed. Useful to know your ceiling so you don't over-concede.

Set the new money to the runway you actually need, hold it roughly constant, and let the pre-money move. That isolates the one variable that matters most.